Governments worldwide agree: Achieving a real turnaround in the fight against global warming requires joint, open discussions about existing technologies and necessary innovations for a more sustainable use of existing resources. The path to a CO2-free future is costly and requires extremely high investments. Green hydrogen is an important building block. The Norwegian pioneer Nel ASA has been well on its way as a global player for several years, but the Company is not yet profitable. However, recent blockbuster orders point to a noticeable acceleration. Here is an assessment of the situation.
Varta AG was one of the high flyers in the MDAX in 2020/2021. The rally led the stock price to over EUR 180 on the expectation of a battery revolution from Ellwangen. But things turned out differently. Problems with the supply chains due to the Corona pandemic, rising raw material and energy costs and sales problems with key customers caused the Group to stumble. Today, 2 years after the joyful rush, the Varta share price has plummeted by 90% and a tough restructuring course is on the agenda. A stocktaking.
In order to achieve the set climate targets, both politicians and industry agree that green hydrogen has been considered a key element of the energy turnaround for years. The rosy outlook proclaimed for the sector by industry experts and financial analysts has created a gold-rush mood among listed companies since the beginning of the decade, and the valuations of market leaders such as Nel ASA and Plug Power have soared to astronomical heights. In contrast, the reported sales and, in some cases, equally high losses of the companies hardly justify the valuations of EUR 2.1 billion and EUR 4.95 billion, respectively, which are still ambitious despite the strong correction. With a market capitalization of only EUR 59.62 million, the Canadian hydrogen specialist dynaCERT's valuation represents only a fraction of these figures. A major order for 3,000 of its patented HydraGEN units has now put a clear exclamation mark on the Company. Further orders are likely to follow.
Despite all the announcements from Berlin, it is immediately clear to the listener that converting our energy supply from fossil fuels to CO2-free sources will first require a lot of resources to get the facilities, including infrastructure, that will be needed in the future, into place. A significant, environmentally damaging effort must first take place to install wind and solar power plants and integrate them into the grid. Canada has understood the problems of the world energy supply and is implementing the requirements of the current difficult times in a politically non-judgmental and consistent manner. Saturn Oil & Gas is an ESG-oriented energy company with strong growth in oil and gas production in Saskatchewan. There are now good drilling results to report for the first quarter.
The opportunities are gigantic, as are the forecasts of experts. The consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, for example, sees hydrogen as a key element of the energy transition and expects an increase from 76 to up to 600 Mt worldwide by 2050. Despite the rosy outlook, buoyed by huge subsidy programs from politicians, companies in the sector are undergoing a sharp consolidation phase. For example, industry leaders such as Plug Power and Nel ASA have recently lost over 40% of their stock market valuation. For a long time, newcomer First Hydrogen was able to escape the correction. After outperforming and gaining over 1,600% since August 2021, the share price halved quickly and is now trading at a prominent support zone. The fundamental data remain excellent so that a second long-term entry opportunity could arise at the current level.
Sentiment toward Germany as a business location has deteriorated significantly among major industrial companies in recent months. The sharp increase in energy and material costs, followed by high wage settlements, are putting pressure on operating margins. BASF is one of the most energy-intensive conglomerates in the country. Management is reluctantly responding with cost-cutting measures that call entire locations into question and mean a significant reduction in the number of employees. It is not only the worsening economic situation that is responsible but, above all, the anti-industry policies from Berlin and Brussels. Managers are therefore turning their attention to much cheaper foreign markets and investing many billions there. Here is an update from yesterday's Annual General Meeting.
The use of artificial intelligence is here to stay. According to industry experts, we are at the beginning of a technological revolution that, based on information and communication technology and driven by AI, will lead us to a world where all things will be connected and intelligent. The market growth is enormous and will be accelerated by future key technologies such as 5G, cloud, video, the Internet of Things and autonomous driving. C3.ai is a leading provider of AI software for enterprises to accelerate digital transformation. Despite the outstanding growth opportunities, the still loss-making US company, valued at USD 1.98 billion, is facing headwinds from several sides.
The Canadian-German biotech company BioNxt has won an international pharmaceutical company as a customer and concluded a development and manufacturing contract. An orally soluble product based on BioNxt's platform will be developed and manufactured at the site of its German subsidiary Vektor Pharma TF GmbH in Baden-Württemberg, Germany. According to a company release, the contract has been signed and partially paid. About a week ago, BioNxt reported the purchase of a coating and cutting machine to expand commercial manufacturing capacity. Now, things could also move very quickly with another product from BioNxt.
Due to the war in Ukraine and the end of the loose monetary policy by the central banks, the stock exchanges took a dive, especially in the first nine months of last year. The leading German index DAX lost around 28% from the beginning of the Russian invasion until the beginning of October. The uncertainties also caused the trading figures of online brokers to plummet. However, a strong recovery began in the 4th quarter of 2022. Since then, the DAX has posted a performance of almost 36%. While the war in Eastern Europe continues to rage, an end to the cycle of interest rate hikes seems within reach. Due to the resurgent world stock markets, online brokers are also likely to experience a significant rebound. Above all, Smartbroker Holding AG should benefit disproportionately from the launch of "Smartbroker 2.0".
Biotech stocks have not yet been able to mirror the major stock market upswing since October 2022. The reason for this is the parallel rise in interest rates, which makes the refinancing of growth companies extremely expensive. MorphoSys acquired the US biotech company Constellation Pharmaceutical for USD 1.7 billion in 2021. Since this huge step, the share has lost 25% of its value. Now, however, the situation seems to be under control. A look ahead to 2023/2024 gives hope, and the share price may have recently reached a technical bottom. We analyze the current development.